Macro-Economic Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Sudan

Combating the spread of HIV/AIDS in Sudan

Description

In its continuing efforts to combat the spread of HIV/AIDS in Sudan the UNDP requested a macro-economic impact study that:

  • Provides evidence of the significance of the impact of HIV/AIDS to the economy
  • Can be used as an advocacy tool to enhance political and financial support
  • Is useful in mainstreaming HIV/AIDS in national development plans, poverty reduction strategies and budgetary
  • Can contribute to building institutional capacity to plan and implement multi-sectorial strategies at both national and sub-national levels
  • to limit the spread of HIV/AIDS and mitigate its social and economic impact on poor people and women

Services

Phase 1

  • Desktop Research
    • Collect and review HIV data and government policies (leading to developing scenarios)
    • Review government policies (current):
    • Review macroeconomic data
    • Collect macroeconomic data
  • Design fieldwork
    • Overall instrument design & compilation of field manual with inputs from the macro economist, the epidemiologist and the survey manager
  • Implement field survey
    • Select regions
    • Select PRA researchers
    • Train PRAs
    • Organise workshops
  • Compilation and analysis of data
    • Establish a data analysis framework,
    • Compile instruments
  • Analyze data
    • Compile field survey report
  • Detailed report on macroeconomic impact
    • Compile and review the economic report

Phase 2

  • Epidemiological Scenarios and Economic Modelling
    • Identify economic factors and indicators which are influenced by the HIV/AIDS pandemic
    • Develop an economic model that can reproduce the base year situation
    • Develop 3 scenarios for HIV prevalence (high, medium and low)
    • Project the identified indicators in the light of the 3 different prevalence scenarios
    • Use the model to assess the country’s economy for each scenario over the next 5-15 years

Phase 3

  • Policy Recommendations
    • Develop a strategy for combating HIV/AIDS in the light of the projected economy and in consultation with the Client
    • Develop policy recommendations for each of the 3 scenarios
    • Present the policy recommendation to a national workshop addressing the various stakeholders